995 AXNT20 KNHC 172345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29/30W, from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 27W-39W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62/63W from 05N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 10N-18N between 56W-62W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 05N-10N between 60W-65W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 05N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Central America from 07N-16N between 79W-89W. Expect the wave to produce enhanced rains over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 08N33W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-16N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 40W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to central Louisiana near 31N92W. Scattered moderate convection is the N Gulf of Mexico from 24N-31N between 80W-93W to include the Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the E Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 15N-21N between 89W-93W. 10-15 kt southerly surface winds are over the Gulf. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W Gulf near 27N97W. Upper level diffluence is over N Florida enhancing convection. Disorganized convection over the NE Gulf of Mexico are associated with a stalled front over the SE United States. Winds and seas may be higher in and near the convection. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected over the NE Gulf through Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the waters just W of the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea to the Bay of Campeche Wed accompanied by ample deep moisture. Otherwise, high pressure will build W across the area through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are affecting the Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Venezuela and N Colombia. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered S of the Cayman Islands near 19N80W. Upper level diffluence is over Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica enhancing convection. Strong winds are expected over the Windward Passage tonight. A tropical wave currently near 85W will move W of the Caribbean tonight. The wave will combine with high pressure N of the area to support fresh to strong winds over the SW Caribbean tonight, and over the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south central Caribbean Sun evening as the next tropical wave currently located along 62W/63W moves W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 21N67W. Isolated moderate convection is from 21N-30N between 62W-71W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 24N60W. Isolated moderate convection is from 22N- 30N between 55W-62W. Surface ridging will remain in place over the western Atlantic N of 25N through Thu. An embedded trough will track W across the western Atlantic this weekend, then over the western Bahamas Mon before moving inland over Florida Tue. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail N of 22N, with moderate to fresh E winds expected S of 22N through most of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through Wed. $$ Formosa