000 AXNT20 KNHC 171722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27/28W, from 19N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-09N between 22W-36W. A tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles along 60/61W from 05N-18N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-15N between 55W-62W including over portions of the Windward Islands. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean through the remainder of this weekend. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 21N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm W and 210 nm E of the wave axis from 10N-17N. The southern portion of this convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. Expect the wave to produce enhanced rains over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through early Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W to 09N29W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, no other significant convection is seen. GULF OF MEXICO... Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak surface trough. Some of this activity may contain gusty winds causing locally rough seas. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen north of 24N east of 90W to include the Florida Big Bend area. Upper-level ridging covers the western Gulf. However, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are found within 90 nm of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. An E-W stationary front just inland from the northern Gulf Coast over the southeastern U.S. will continue to be a source of moisture that will bring showers and tstorms to the northeastern Gulf through the weekend. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected over the NE Gulf through Sun evening. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will bring enhanced showers and tstorms to the southern Gulf from east to west late tonight through early Monday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through Mon. A stronger tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea to the south central Gulf on Wednesday, accompanied by ample deep moisture. Otherwise, high pressure will build westward across the area through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are affecting the Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted across the north-central Caribbean Sea north of 16N between Puerto Rico and Jamaica, including Hispaniola. The moisture that is producing this activity appears to be related to a surface trough over the Atlantic that extends northward from 19N65W. A tropical wave with axis near 83W will move across the rest of the western Caribbean through this evening. The passage of the wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the southwest Caribbean through tonight, and over the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south-central Caribbean on Sun evening being supported by the passage of a tropical wave that is currently located across the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough located near the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina is producing disorganized showers and tstorms. Tropical development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the next couple of days. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A surface trough extends from 31N63W to 20N65W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 25N-30N between 55W-65W. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere from 23N-31N between 54W-70W. A surface trough from 29N37W to 22N35W is producing cloudiness and possible isolated showers within 60 nm of the trough as it moves westward. A 1025 mb surface high near 33N47W is producing surface ridging across the remainder of the basin. In the eastern Atlantic offshore Morocco and near the Canary Islands, strong to near gale force NE winds are expected now through Monday. The Atlantic ridge dominates the forecast area in the western Atlantic. The ridge axis is forecast to lift northward by Mon night. The trough from 31N63W to 20N65W will track westward across the eastern and central forecast waters this weekend and over the western part of the area Mon before moving inland across Florida on Tue. The gradient between the high pressure and the tough will maintain mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh east winds south of 22N through most of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through Wed. $$ Hagen