000 AXNT20 KNHC 170006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy Rainfall/Flooding over southern Mexico, Central America, N Colombia, and N Venezuela. Expect higher localized totals near strong topographical forcing. Flash floods and mudslides will continue to be the primary hazards during this event. Scattered moderate convection is currently moving across the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, NE Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Similar convection is over N Colombia and N Venezuela. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kts. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-16N between 10W-20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W S from 07N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis S of 12N. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 07N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kts. Scattered moderate convection is over the Caribbean Sea from 10N-20N between 75W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 13N23W to 09N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 12N50W to 09N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 47W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from N Florida near 30N84W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 82W-92W. Weak surface ridging with 10-15 kt southerly flow covers the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N94W. Strong subsidence is over the far W Gulf and S Texas. The pre-frontal trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico with very deep tropical moisture, together with a stationary front over the southern U.S. will continue to bring convection over the NE Gulf and Florida. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds causing rough seas. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected over the NE Gulf ahead of the front and trough through at least Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through Mon. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area early Sat and prevail through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean, and another is along 60W. See above. A special feature for heavy rainfall and flooding is also above. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola and Cuba. Elsewhere, a 1011 mb low is over the SW Caribbean near 11N80W basically connected to the eastern extent of the SE Pacific monsoon trough. This low is enhancing convection E of Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence over the central and western Caribbean is enhancing convection. A tropical wave with axis along 79W will continue to move across the western Caribbean today and Sat. The passage of this wave, along with high pressure north of the area, will continue to support fresh to near gale force trades over the central and southwest Caribbean today, and over the NW Caribbean Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south-central Caribbean basin on Sun evening being supported by the passage of a new tropical wave moving across that part of the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 27N60W to 20N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 20N-29N between 55W-65W. Another 1026 mb high is entered over the central Atlantic near 33N49W. A ridge, that currently dominates the W Atlantic, will begin to slowly lift northward, as a trough moves from E to W across the eastern and central forecast waters, through the upcoming weekend. The rather light gradient will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, while moderate to fresh winds will be south of 22N. Expect fresh to strong winds are between the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola at night through tonight. Strong winds will resume over this area Sun evening and prevail through Mon evening. $$ Formosa