000 AXNT20 KNHC 161725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico to Central America and portions of South America Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are currently moving across NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Showers continue off the coasts of southern Nicaragua to Panama. There is also some scattered showers observed in northern Colombia and moving across northern Venezuela. A large surge of moisture will encompass the areas from the northern portions of South America and across Central America, from Panama into southern Mexico. Heavy to extreme rainfall will continue particularly across Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador during the next 36 hours. For today, heavy rainfall can also be expected across Venezuela and northern Colombia. Expect higher localized totals near strong topographical forcing. Flash floods and mudslides will continue to be the primary hazards during this event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W S of 17N, moving W at 15-20 kts. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the axis from 08N-11N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 15N, moving W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are seen along and near the axis and the ITCZ from 07N-12N. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kts. An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed along this wave from 10N-15N between 73W- 79W. There is also an area of strong convection, near Jamaica and the northern tip of the wave axis, from 17N-20N between 75W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N28W to 10N38W. The ITCZ continues from 10N38W to 09N56W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 09N57W to the coast of Suriname near 08N58W. Scattered showers are seen south of the monsoon trough from 06N-13N between 15W-38W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the ITCZ from 07N-12N between 46W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough continues to extend into the NE Gulf. At the surface, a stationary front is draped across the eastern and central Gulf coast states from the eastern Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. A pre-frontal trough is seen in the NE Gulf from 31N83W to 29N85W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of this trough and in the northern Gulf from 28N-30N between 83W- 92W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen farther south from 24N-28N between 82W-88W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin with moderate southwesterly winds in the southern Bay of Campeche. The combination of a pre-frontal trough over the NE Gulf ahead of a stationary front located over the southern U.S. along with very deep tropical moisture in place will continue to bring convection across the NE Gulf. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds causing rough seas. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected over the NE Gulf ahead of the front and trough through at least Sunday. Winds will pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through Monday, but to fresh to strong Saturday night and Sunday night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area early Saturday and prevail through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough has lifted northward into the SW Caribbean, stretching from 11N73W to SW Nicaragua near 11N84W. A 1012 mb low is along the monsoon trough near 12N81W. This is bringing scattered thunderstorms across the SW basin from 09N-16N between 80W-85W. See the Special Features section for more information on the heavy rainfall in Central and South America. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen along and south of the Cayman Islands from 17N-20N between 78W- 83W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, north of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. A tropical wave with axis near 76W will move across the western Caribbean tonight through early Saturday night. The passage of the wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central and southwest Caribbean today, and over the NW Caribbean Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south-central Caribbean basin on Monday as a new tropical wave moves across that part of the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As a mid-level trough pushes east in the NE Gulf, this is bringing isolated thunderstorms across the Bahamas and portions of the western Atlantic. This activity is seen from 23N-30N between 75W-79W. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 18N57W with a surface trough seen from 19N58W to 27N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough southward in the northern Lesser Antilles, from 18N-29N between 56W-65W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high near 34N47W. The ridge currently dominating the forecast area will begin to slowly lift northward as a trough moves from E to W across the eastern and central forecast waters during the upcoming weekend. The rather light gradient will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds across the NW part between the ridge and a stationary front over the SE CONUS. Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola at night through tonight. Strong winds will resume over this area Monday evening. $$ AKR