000 AXNT20 KNHC 160605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico to Central America Currently: Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the southern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from 72W westward. A large surge of moisture will encompass the areas that extend from northern parts of South America and Central America, to southern Mexico, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions remain highly favorable for heavy rains to continue to accumulate, with higher localized totals near strong topographical forcing. The comparatively greatest amounts of rainfall are being forecast for the areas that extend from Panama to Nicaragua, including the offshore waters of those countries in the Caribbean Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other areas of rainfall, elsewhere, will cover the areas from NW Venezuela and N Colombia to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Flash floods and mudslides will be the biggest hazards during this event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 10W and 20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 16N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N to 12N between 43W and 48W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 16N northward from Haiti westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 20N16W, to 09N24W and 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W to 09N42W 09N47W, to the coast of Suriname near 06N56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N20W to 08N25W 06N30W 07N35W, and from 10N southward between 52W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through central Georgia to southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and central Louisiana. A surface trough extends from SE Georgia, to the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N northward from 92W eastward. The stationary front that is along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline continues to generate scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeast Texas on Friday morning, and then it will weaken into a surface trough on Saturday. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico, ahead of the front and trough. The winds will pulse to fresh in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening, associated with a surface trough. Surface high pressure will establish itself, elsewhere in the region, early on Saturday, and prevail through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from Puerto Rico westward. A tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 16N northward from Haiti westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N80W, to 12N86W in Nicaragua, and continuing southwestward into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from 72W westward. A tropical wave along 74W will move across the western Caribbean Sea on Friday and Saturday. The passage of the wave, along with high pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central and southwest sections of the Caribbean Sea through Friday, and in the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south central basin early on Monday, supported by the passage of a new tropical wave moving across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 30N20W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to a 28N44W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to a 20N55W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to a Bahamas 25N77W upper level cyclonic circulation center. A surface trough is along 53W/54W from 20N to 25N. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the area from 25N to 30N between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward from 70W westward, including across the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 34N43W, to 32N59W, to 27N72W, across Florida and through the Straits of Florida to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge, that extends from the Azores and the Bermuda High, will persist across the forecast waters through Tuesday. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, through most of the period. The remnants of a front will extend across northern Florida on Saturday night, supporting fresh to strong SW winds in the Jacksonville adjacent waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola at night through Friday. Strong winds will resume in this region on Monday evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola at night through Fri. Strong winds will resume in this region Mon night. $$ MT