000 AXNT20 KNHC 160004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico to Central America Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NE Nicaragua and the W Caribbean from 12N-15N between 78W-86W. A large surge of moisture will bring continuous heavy rainfall over this area through Friday. Flash floods and mudslides over NE Nicaragua will be the biggest hazard during this event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 06N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over W Africa from 12N-15N between 15W-17W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 04N-15N, moving W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 240 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 10N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is over the central Caribbean within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 08N24W to 10N36W to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the showers and convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 19W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas. A prefrontal surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the N Gulf N of 29N. Patches of scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the N Gulf, N of 25N and E of 95W, to include most of the Florida Peninsula. The stationary front over the northern Gulf states continues to generate scattered showers and tstms over the Gulf waters north of 25N. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeast Texas on Fri and then will weaken into a surface trough Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected over the NE Gulf ahead of the front and trough. Winds will pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening associated with a surface trough. Otherwise, surface high pressure will establish in the region early Sat and prevail through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for information on the heavy rainfall in Nicaragua. The latest scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with gentle trades in the Yucatan Channel. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is over Cuba, the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave along 73W will move across the western Caribbean Fri and Sat. The passage of the wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong tradewinds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Fri and in the NW Caribbean Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south-central basin early on Mon supported by the passage of a new tropical wave moving across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, from 23N-31N between 74W-79W. A mid-level low near 18N50W is producing scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms from 21N-29N between 41W-58W. Otherwise, the rest of the basin is under surface ridging anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N46W. Surface ridging extending from the Azores and the Bermuda High will persist across the forecast waters through Tue. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola at night through Fri. Strong winds will resume in this region Mon night. $$ Formosa