000 AXNT20 KNHC 151741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico to Central America Numerous moderate to strong convection is moving across the SW Caribbean and Costa Rica/Nicaragua from 08N-14N between 77W-86W. The most intense convection on land is currently moving across eastern and central Nicaragua. A large surge of moisture will bring continuous heavy rainfall across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica today then shift to central/northeast Nicaragua on Friday. Flash floods and mudslides will be the biggest hazard during this event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An tropical wave is along the west African coast along 12W S of 17N. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this wave from 08N-17N between 13W-18W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W S of 15N and moving W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 170 nm of the wave axis from 07N-11N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W S of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen E of the wave axis from 14N-18N and W of 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal, just to the north of its border with The Gambia, near 13N17W to 09N22W to 10N33W to 09N43W. The ITCZ begins near 09N47W to 06N54W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen south of the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 18W-36W. A small cluster of convection is seen north of the ITCZ from 08N-09N between 49W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough continues to push east across the SE U.S., extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a stationary front remains well inland with a trough seen from 31N84W to 27N87W. Another trough is seen in the western Gulf from 29N91W to 29N96W. These troughs, along with mid-level forcing, is leading to scattered moderate convection across the northern Gulf from 24N-30N between 82W-95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also igniting just 50 nm off the west Florida coast from the Florida Keys to southern Tampa Bay. The Yucatan trough is analyzed from 22N91W to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across the basin. The stationary front over the northern Gulf states could bring higher winds and seas near the ongoing convective activity. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected over the NE Gulf ahead of the front. Winds will pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening associated with a surface trough. Otherwise, surface high pressure will establish in the region Friday and prevail through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is over the northern Caribbean and extends south and west into the western Caribbean. For now, isolated thunderstorms are seen south of SE Cuba and some thunderstorms are moving across the eastern Caribbean. See the Special Features section for more information on the heavy rainfall in Central America. The latest scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with gentle trades in the NW basin. A tropical wave with axis near 72W will move across the western Caribbean Friday and Saturday. The passage of the wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong tradewinds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Friday and in the NW Caribbean Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south-central basin Monday evening supported by a new tropical wave that will move across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, from 23N-31N between 74W-79W. A mid-level low near 18N50W is producing scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms from 21N-29N between 41W-58W. Otherwise, the rest of the basin is under surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high near 34N48W. Surface ridging extending from the Bermuda High will persist across the forecast waters through Monday. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola during the evening and night hours through Friday night. $$ AKR