000 AXNT20 KNHC 142347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large surge of moisture will continue across Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua through the next 24-36 hours. Environmental conditions remain highly favorable for heavy rains to continue to accumulate, with higher localized totals near strong topographical forcing. Costa Rica has received nearly 7 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with 2-4" of additional rain in the last 6 hours mostly on the north Caribbean side of the country. By Friday, the focus of heavy rainfall will shift north to Nicaragua, El Salvador, southern Honduras/Guatemala and southern Chiapas Mexico. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the biggest hazard during this event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 41W from 03N-12N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis from 05N-11N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 09N- 20N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Dry Saharan air prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting significant convection at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 85W and S of 22N, is moving west at 10 kt. This feature is enhancing convection along the monsoon trough across Central America and adjacent waters S of 15N between 80W-90W. See the Special Features section above for more information in regards to the heavy rainfall across Central America. Additionally, scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the wave affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and The Gambia near 13N16W to 11N32W. The ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 11N40W, then west of a tropical wave near 10N42W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered showers are noted within 205 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough is moving eastward across the SE U.S. and extends into the northeast Gulf. At the surface, a 1013 mb low is analyzed near 29N87W with a trough extending from the low to 26N91W. North of this feature, a cold front extends across the Gulf coast states. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the front reaching the Gulf waters north of 26N between 88W-93W. The remainder of the basin remains quiet with a surface ridge prevailing. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the Gulf. The cold front across the south and southeast CONUS will reach the Gulf northern waters on Thu morning where it will stall by Fri before lifting north of the area on Sat morning. Scattered moderate convection will continue across the NE waters tonight and prevail over the northern basin through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected over the NE waters Thu through Sat associated with the front. Winds will pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening associated with the diurnal surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Also, refer to the Special Features section above for details about the convection occurring over the southwest Caribbean and Central America. An upper level ridge is centered over the northern Caribbean, with an inverted mid-level trough over Cuba. This is igniting moderate convection north of 20N between 78W-87W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia with moderate to fresh trades across most of the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in the eastern and western portions of the basin. The tropical wave with axis near 85W will move out of the western Caribbean tonight. The second tropical wave with axis along 65W will move across the central Caribbean on Thu, and the western Caribbean through Sat. The passage of the second wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Fri night and in the NW Caribbean this weekend. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. As a mid-level trough exits the U.S. east coast, scattered moderate convection will develop across the western Atlantic. At this time, this activity is noted north of 30N and west of 78W. To the south, a surface trough extends from 29N78W to 25N80W with scattered showers. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N49W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania. Surface ridge will persist across the forecast waters through Mon. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through Mon. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. $$ ERA