000 AXNT20 KNHC 141116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 716 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding in Central America: The potential for heavy to extreme amounts of rain exists in parts of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, due to upper level atmospheric conditions, from now through Friday. Currently: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the waters and the land areas that are from 07N to 11N between 72W in Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, across Colombia and the southern sections of Central America to 86W. The monsoon trough covers the area that is from 08.5N to 10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is likely that the heaviest rainfall amounts may occur in Panama and Costa Rica. It is possible that these heavy to extreme rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides in some areas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 07N to 10N between 34W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 23N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. The latest upper air sounding data show that the wave has entered the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 13N to 20N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are moving away from Venezuela, northward a bit, from 13N southward between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from NW Cuba from 23N81W, to 17N83W, and southward along 83W beyond Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, with a NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough. Precipitation that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea also is related to the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and The Gambia, near 13N17W to 11N26W and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 10N44W, 09N51W, and 07N55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 48W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 10N from 40W eastward, and elsewhere from 12N southward between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model data for 700 mb show an inverted trough from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the NW corner of the area, and then extending into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The 500 mb GFS model data show an inverted trough in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 95W eastward. Surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, supporting light to moderate winds and slight seas. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening, associated with a surface trough. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from upper level cyclonic wind flow that is on top of Hispaniola, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers in general cover the area that is from 15N northward from 70W westward, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward from 94W eastward. The monsoon trough covers the area that is from 08.5N to 10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the waters and the land areas that are from 07N to 11N between 72W in Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, across Colombia and the southern sections of Central America to 86W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward from 77W westward. A tropical wave along 83W will move out of the western Caribbean Sea late today. A second tropical wave, that currently is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W, currently near the Lesser Antilles, will move quickly, and reach the western Caribbean Sea by late Friday. The passage of these waves, along with high pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean Sea through Friday night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from the Canary Islands, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N35W, toward the Hispaniola upper level cyclonic circulation center. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean, in general, from 20N northward from Florida eastward. The GFS model data for 500 mb and 700 mb show that an inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from Cuba northward from 70W westward. Broken multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area of the cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 38N26W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 33N49W, through 32N55W, beyond Bermuda, to the central Bahamas. The current surface ridge extending from the Bermuda high, will persist across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. $$ MT