000 AXNT20 KNHC 140543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding in Central America: The potential for heavy to extreme amounts of rain exists in parts of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, due to upper level atmospheric conditions, from now through Friday. Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong rainshowers are covering parts of Panama and Costa Rica. It is likely that the heaviest rainfall amounts may occur in Panama and Costa Rica. It is possible that these heavy to extreme rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides in some areas. SW Carribbean Gale Warning: A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic Ocean, west-southwestward across the central Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida. This pattern has been supporting gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The current forecast consists of the wind speeds slowing down to less than gale-force, starting at 14/0600 UTC. Please, read the High Seas Forecast product at http://hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 07N to 10N between 34W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 24N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. The wave model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation to the north of 12N. ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 12N southward between 55W and 60W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 23N79W just to the north of Cuba, to 17N81W, southward along 81W to Panama. Precipitation that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea also is related to the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 11N21W 11N28W, and 08N36W. The ITCZ is along 08N39W 09N48W 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 23W and 40W, and from 12N southward between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model data for 700 mb show an inverted trough from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the NW corner of the area, and then extending into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The 500 mb GFS model data show an inverted trough in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 95W eastward. Surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, supporting light to moderate winds and sea heights generally less than 5 feet. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening, associated with a surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from upper level cyclonic wind flow that is on top of Hispaniola, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 17N to 19N between 91W and 93W, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers in general cover the rest of the area that is from 15N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and beyond 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in NW Venezuela and N Colombia from 08N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo and 75W in Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 12N from 75W westward. A tropical wave along 81W will move out of the western Caribbean Sea late on Wednesday. A second tropical wave, that currently is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W, in the waters that are to the E of the Lesser Antilles, will reach the eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday morning. The passage of these waves, along with high pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean Sea through Friday night. Minimal gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela will diminish to strong winds early on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from the Canary Islands, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N35W, toward the Hispaniola upper level cyclonic circulation center. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 29N to 32N between 39W and 42W, and from 24N to 27N between 59W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W eastward. The GFS model data for 500 mb and 700 mb show that an inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from Cuba northward from 70W westward. Broken multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area of the cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 38N25W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N47W, through 32N54W, to 27N73W, toward Lake Okeechobee in Florida. The current surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic Ocean, extending west-southwestward across the central Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Active weather will continue across the NW waters through Wednesday, as the remnants of a former front linger in the region. $$ MT