000 AXNT20 KNHC 132343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 743 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy Rain/Flooding in Central America: The potential for heavy rain exists in parts of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua due to favorable upper level atmospheric conditions, now through Friday. Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches per day are expected across the region, with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest rains are likely to occur in western Panama and Costa Rica. These rains could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in some areas. SW Carribbean Gale Warning: A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west-southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. This pattern will support gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening beginning at 14/0000 UTC and ending before 14/0600 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product at http://hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 13N southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. Scattered showers are seen from 06N-10N between 34W-40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 22N55W to 14N55W to 05N53W and is moving W at 15-20 knots. The wave model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation to the north of 12N. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 46W-55W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79/80W from 07N- 23N, moving W at 15-20 knots. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is over Panama and Costa Rica, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and tstorms are over eastern and central Cuba, Jamaica and west of the Cayman Islands to 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 09N51W and continues W of a tropical wave from 08N55W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 40W-46W. Additional showers are approaching Trinidad and NE Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper level ridge remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico. On the TPW imagery, a large area of enhanced moisture is noted over the NE Gulf. A 1012 low pressure is located near the coast of Mississippi. This is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 28N-31N between 87W-90W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 27N-29N east of 85W, and in the south-central Gulf from 21N-25N between 84W-92W, including in the Yucatan Channel. No significant showers are seen west of 92W. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning shows gentle winds across the basin. Surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf waters supporting light to moderate winds and seas generally under 5 ft. Winds will pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening associated with a surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is occurring over northern Venezuela as well as the far SW Caribbean near the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Greater Antilles and the NW Caribbean, mainly north of 18N between 75W-90W. Relatively dry mid-level air is seen over much of the central Caribbean due to influences from Saharan dust. Strong trades cover the south-central Caribbean with near gales near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave with axis along 79/80W will move out of the western Caribbean late on Wed. Another tropical wave currently located along 54W will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight and the eastern Caribbean on Wed morning. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will briefly reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic west-southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A stationary front is along 33N from 65W westward to 79W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from Cuba to 30N between 70W and Florida. To the east, a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N45W remains in control across the basin. The surface ridge in the W Atlantic will persist through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period. Active weather will continue across NW waters through Wed as the remnants of a former front linger in the region. $$ Hagen