000 AXNT20 KNHC 131754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...Special Features... SW Carribbean Gale: A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west-southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will support for minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight for around a 6 hour period. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 17N southward, moving W at 15 knots. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting convection near the wave axis. Any nearby precipitation is with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 knots. The wave model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation to the north of 11N. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 49W-52W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 22N southward, moving W at 15-20 knots. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation along the wave. Scattered to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-10N between 75W-83W from the coast of Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula is along 89W, from 22N southward, moving W at 10-15 kts. Isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis along the Yucatan. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N49W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 08N52W to 07N59W. A few showers are noted along the monsoon trough west of 27W. Most of the activity is noted along the ITCZ with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N-11N between 36W-50W, and west of the tropical wave from 06N-09N to 53W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level ridge remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico. On the TPW imagery, a large area of enhanced moisture is noted over the NE Gulf. A 1011 low pressure is located near 30N87W with a trough extending along the Florida western coast to the FL Keys. This is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 23N and east of 91W. No significant showers are seen west of 91W. The ASCAT pass from late Monday morning shows gentle winds across the basin. The weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters producing light to moderate winds and seas generally under 5 ft. Winds will pulse to fresh west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over western Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Dry Sahara air persist across the Caribbean limiting convection across the basin. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh easterly trades across the Caribbean with no significant precipitation noted. The potential for heavy rain exists in parts of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica due to favorable upper level atmospheric conditions expected mid week. It is likely that the rainfall amounts may range from 1 inch to 3 inches per day, in the areas of heavy rain. Isolated flash floods are possible. The tropical wave with axis along 77W will move across the central Caribbean today, and over the western Caribbean on Wed. Another tropical wave currently located along 52W will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight and the eastern Caribbean on Wed. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through at least Fri. Winds will briefly reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic west-southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A stationary front is along 32N from 65W westward to 79W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Straits of Florida across the northern Bahamas to the western Atlantic to 31N. ASCAT indicate gentle to moderate southeast wind in the western Atlantic. To the east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N48W remains in control across the basin. A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west- southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Active weather will continue across NE portions of the Atlc zones today as an old frontal zone and an upper-level trough linger there. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. $$ MMTorres