000 AXNT20 KNHC 121032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to continue through Monday. Please visit http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for the latest forecast from Meteo France. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 26W from 03N-12N, moving W at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic along 43W from 03N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air which is limiting convection north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N- 10N between 39W-55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting convection near the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 05N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N16W to 08N26W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to 08N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 08N45W and continues to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 15W-22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 28N-30N between 82W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also over the W Bay of Campeche S of 20N between 94W-97W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over Mississippi near 32N90W, producing easterly upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for quiescent winds and seas through the end of the week. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is S of E Cuba, the Gulf of Honduras, and N Colombia. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. A tropical wave along 82W will move across the W Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today. A second tropical wave along 68W will move across the central Caribbean through Tue, and the western Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A front is over the W Atlantic, E of South Carolina. Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 65W-78W. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N48W producing fair weather. A gale is along the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west- southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa