000 AXNT20 KNHC 120543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to continue through Monday. Please visit http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for the latest forecast from Meteo France. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 24W from 03N-12N, moving W at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude wave that has cyclonic turning near 08N24W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic along 41W from 03N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air which is limiting convection north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 38W-47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting convection near the wave axis. Scattered showers are well east of the wave axis over the Windward Islands from 11N-15N between 59W-61W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 05N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over over Cuba, Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N16W to 09N23W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends along 08N between 42W-60W. Aside from the showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 15W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 28N-30N between 82W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also over the E Bay of Campeche from 18N- 21N between 91W-93W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over Mississippi near 32N90W, producing easterly upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh to locally strong each evening in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti, The Gulf of Honduras, and N Colombia. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. A tropical wave along 81W will move across the W Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight and then west of the basin by early Mon. A second tropical wave along 65W/66W will move across the central Caribbean through Tue, and the western Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the W Atlantic, E of South Carolina. Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 64W-78W. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N49W producing fair weather. A gale is along the coast of Morocco. Surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa