000 AXNT20 KNHC 111803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 37W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in SAL dry air which is limiting convection north of 10N. Scattered showers are noted within 04N-09N between 35W-39W near the monsoon trough. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 19N southward, moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty, air from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection. Isolated showers are noted near the Virgin Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 22N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers near the coast of Colombia and Panama. A few showers are also noted northeast of Jamaica or 150 nm east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N16W to 06N49W. The ITCZ extends from 06N49W to near the border of Venezuela and Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa S of the monsoon trough from 07N-12N between 13W-17W, from 05N-09N between 20W-27W, and along the ITCZ from 06N-08N between 52W-54W, and from 07N-09N between 57W-60W near the coast of Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico with a 1017 mb high pressure. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present over the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W.Some of this convection is moving along the Florida peninsula producing moderate showers and thunderstorms. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over NE Texas near 32N97W, producing NE to E upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Recent scatterometer show gentle and light winds in the central Gulf and moderate winds across the Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with no shower activity over the eastern, central and western Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N along the coast of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, mostly due to the proximity of monsoon trough near the region, tropical wave along 77W and a 1009 mb low pressure in Colombia. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong easterly trades across the Caribbean with strong conditions generally north of 10N-16N between 73W-79W. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea will move through the Gulf of Honduras tonight and west of the basin by early Mon. A second tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean this morning will move across the central Caribbean through Mon, and the western Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at nighttime. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave currently over the basin. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. A 1020 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N33W. The low is mostly void of convection. Of note in the upper levels in the W Atlantic, diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection from the Straits of Florida and NE Bahamas, from 24N- 31N between 57W-79W. ASCAT data suggests gentle to moderate east to northeast wind north of 12N. Fresh to strong is noted north of 29N-31N between 09N-13W. Surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola this afternoon through the evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres