000 AXNT20 KNHC 110515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 36W from 03N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm either side of the wave axis, south of 12N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 03N-20N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model diagnostics at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty, air from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection. Scattered moderate convection is noted, however, inland over over Guyana. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 07N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba, N Colombia, and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the showers associated with tropical waves mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough from 06N-10N between 12W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over N Florida N of 28N. Similar convection is over the mouth of the Mississippi River. More scattered moderate convection is over the E Bay of Campeche S of 21N and E of 94W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over E Texas near 32N95W, producing NE to E upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave currently over the Central Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with no shower activity over the eastern and central Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 79W, mostly due to an upper level low centered near 17N81W. A tropical wave across the central Caribbean near 77W will move across the NW Caribbean and Central America on Sun and exit west of the basin by Mon. A second tropical wave along 59W will move across the Lesser Antilles tonight across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue, and west of the basin by Thu. A third tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean by late Tue. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Florida N of 29N and W of 80W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. A 1018 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N29W. The low is mostly void of convection. Of note in the upper levels, diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection E of the Bahamas, from 24N-26N between 78W- 70W. The surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along the N coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa