000 AXNT20 KNHC 102339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 33W from 03N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N and within 300 nm E on either side of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 03N-20N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model diagnostics at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection across most of the wave's area over the waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave affecting Guyana. Expect scattered showers across portions of the Windward Islands Sunday into Monday. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 07N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan air prevails in the wave's environment, which continues to inhibit significant convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 07N32W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 09N56W. Aside from the showers associated with tropical waves mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 195 nm south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 22W, and scattered showers prevail within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries between 35W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across southeast U.S. and some of this activity is reaching the eastern half of the basin mainly north of 26N and east of 90W. To the southwest, the diurnal thermal trough is developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche with scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. High pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through mid week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with the local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave currently over the Central Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with little to no shower activity seen. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough has its axis along Panama's latitude, enhancing convection over this area. Scattered showers are possible to reach the Caribbean waters south of 10N due to this. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean from 12N-15N between 72W-77W, and fresh trades over the remainder of the central Caribbean south of 17.5N. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The passage of the tropical waves along with high pressure north of the area, will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N74W to 31N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough mainly north of 27N between 60W-69W. This activity is supported by upper level diffluence. To the east, a surface trough extends from 22N53W to 24N48W. Another trough is from 23N42W to 29N34W. Scattered showers prevail along both troughs. A weak 1018 mb low is centered near 31N29W with scattered showers. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 25N33W. The surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along the N coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA