000 AXNT20 KNHC 092330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic extends its axis along 28W from 05N-19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depict the wave well, and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 16N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 02N- 20N, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is depicted by model diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N69W to 06N69W, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within this wave. Scattered showers prevail across the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC waters with axis along 90W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern portion of Central America between 88W-94W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 06N50W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough and east of 18W, and from 05N-10N between 30W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high analyzed near 25N85W. No other surface feature is noted at this time. Diurnal afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue across the Florida Peninsula reaching the far east Gulf waters east of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing across the whole basin. Similar weather conditions will continue through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two tropical waves currently across the basin. An upper level low centered north of the area is spreading cloud cover along with showers and tstorms over the Windward Passage Hispaniola enhancing the tropical wave activity. The central Caribbean between 70W-82W is free of any significant shower activity. A significant push of African dust approaching from the east has reached the Lesser Antilles. Expect this dry air to push west toward the central Caribbean over the next couple of days behind the tropical wave. Active weather will continue tonight across far western waters behind the tropical wave across the Yucatan Peninsula. The second tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean tonight and Sat, then exit the western Caribbean Mon morning. The Atlantic high pressure ridge will strengthen across the E Caribbean over the weekend behind this wave and act to freshen the trades across the south-central Caribbean and coastal Colombia. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sun morning and will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two tropical waves currently across the basin. An upper-level low is centered near 24N67W. This feature is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between 60W- 70W. A 1021 mb high is near 31N51W. To the east, a 1016 mb surface low is near 29N29W, with weakening stationary front extending from it to 25N40W. Southeast of the low/front, a pair of 1019 mb surface highs are analyzed at 29N20W and 23N35W, respectively. High pressure over the central Atlantic will prevail over the offshore waters. This will continue to support light to gentle winds across the area, except for the waters east and south of the central Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are expected due to the passage of a couple of tropical waves across the eastern and central Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA