000 AXNT20 KNHC 091731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 26W from 04N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depict the wave well, and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are seen from 06N-11N between 21W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 02N-20N, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is depicted by model diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert of Africa between 10N-21N. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen from 21N-23N between 51W-54W, and from 04N-08N between 48W-54W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N66W to 07N68W, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture with this wave. Scattered showers are seen from 14N-22N between 65W-71W. Scattered tstorms are seen over Venezuela near the wave axis from 07N-09N. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 88W S of 20N over eastern Belize, western Honduras and into the East Pacific, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen across the Gulf of Honduras from 16N-20N between 84.5W-87W. Scattered showers and tstorms extend to the Yucatan Channel and southward to eastern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N25W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 06N49W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N- 10N between 29W-37W, and from 05N-09N between 40W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid to upper level ridging covers most of the Gulf. Weak low to mid level troughing is still over northern Florida and the far NE Gulf. At the surface, weak ridging protrudes into the SE Gulf from the Bermuda High, and a 1016 mb high is analyzed near 25N83W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen offshore of Alabama, Mississippi and SE Louisiana. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere north of 25.5N between 85W-90W. Similar convection is seen to the west of the southern and central Florida peninsula, near the Florida Keys, and in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a surface trough in the west-central Bay of Campeche is leading to scattered moderate convection south of 21N between 94W-97W. Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two tropical waves currently moving through the basin. An upper level low centered near 19N75W is spreading cloud cover along with isolated showers and tstorms over the Windward Passage to the eastern tip of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered tstorms, which are seen south of a line from 10N76W to 13N84W, to include portions of Panama, NE Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. Aside from the showers and tstorms due to the upper-low near the Windward Passage and the East Pacific monsoon trough, most of the open central Caribbean between 70W-82W is free of any significant shower activity. A significant push of African dust approaching from the east has reached the Lesser Antilles. Expect this dry air to push W toward the central Caribbean over the next couple of days behind the tropical wave that is currently located along 67W. The tropical wave with axis along Belize and western Honduras will continue to support scattered showers and tstms south of the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. A second tropical wave moving across the Mona Passage will move across the central Caribbean tonight and Sat, then exit the western Caribbean Mon morning. The passage of the wave will support fresh to near gale force winds across the south-central Caribbean and coast of Colombia tonight through Sun. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sun morning and will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N70W to 27N74W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 120 nm either side of a line from 31N71W to Andros Island Bahamas. Similar activity is seen north of 30N between 65W-73W. A separate upper-level low is centered near 25N67W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 21N-30N between 60W-67W. A surface ridge axis extends from a 1021 mb high near 33N26W to a 1022 mb high near 31N53W. A stationary front extends from 31N25W to 24N41W. It continues as a dissipating stationary front 24N41W to 22N48W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the front. Southeast of the front, a pair of 1020 mb surface highs are analyzed at 29N20W and 25N30W, respectively. High pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to extend a ridge axis over the offshore waters. This will continue to support light to gentle winds across the area, except for the waters east and south of the central Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are expected due to the passage of a couple of tropical waves across the eastern and central Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen