000 AXNT20 KNHC 091044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 24W and S of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 06N-09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W and S of 11N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of the wave axis between 05N-08N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 66W S of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted along the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in addition to adjacent waters from 16N- 21N between 63W- 67W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in northern Venezuela near the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W and S of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean, from 16N- 21N between 82W- 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N24W to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins from 08N34W to 06N49W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N51W to the coast of French Guiana near 06N53W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ 28W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms across the Louisiana and Florida Panhandle coasts, are seen across the Gulf. This activity is occurring mostly E of 89W and N of 25N. There is also an isolated thunderstorm in between the SW Florida coast and the Florida Keys. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1016 mb high near 26N85W. Scattered thunderstorms enhanced by the Yucatan trough is moving across the SW Bay of Campeche, S of 19N and W of 93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin with moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. An upper level trough is extending from the central Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean and is enhancing scattered moderate convection off the coast of Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are reaching the SW basin from convection being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N and between 76W-83W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin, outside of the areas near the tropical waves. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move inland early this morning. Another tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will move across the central Caribbean today and Saturday, then exit the western Caribbean Sunday into Monday. Strong easterly winds will follow over the tropical wave across the south central Caribbean and coast of Colombia Saturday through Sunday. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sunday night, move across the eastern Caribbean Monday and across the central Caribbean through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. A surface trough is seen along the Bahamas Islands from 23N79W to 26N78W which is sparking isolated thunderstorms. Another surface trough is seen north of Hispaniola and across the Turks and Caicos, from 20N72W to 25N70W. As an upper trough moves east into the central Atlantic, it extends southward into the north-central Caribbean, causing scattered moderate convection from 22N-31N between 61W- 73W. A front continues to be stalled across the Atlantic, entering the waters from 31N25W to 23N48W. Showers are seen along the boundary with isolated thunderstorms along the tail-end of the front between 45W-49W. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N56W. A 1018 mb high is analyzed near 25N30W and a 1019 mb high is near 20N21W. Moderate easterly winds are noted over Hispaniola. A ridge extending E to W along 25N will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into early next week, except for moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR