000 AXNT20 KNHC 090529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 23W and S of 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 08N-11N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W and S of 11N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 130 nm of the wave axis mainly S of 06N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's environment. This wave has a surface signature. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in addition to adjacent waters from 16N- 21N between 64W- 67W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in northern Venezuela near the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W and S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N-20N between 82W-87W. The presence of this feature is also enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection across central America mainly W of 86W and mostly in Honduras. Some of this strong convective activity is reaching the Gulf of Honduras S of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Western Sahara near 23N16W to 11N22W to 07N34W to 04N48W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 25W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers that were occurring over Florida have moved into the Gulf, mostly E of 88W and N of 27N. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high near 25N85W. Scattered moderate convection enhanced by the Yucatan trough has moved into the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N and E of 93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin with moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through Monday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. An upper-level low is centered over the Windward Passage enhancing scattered moderate convection across Cuba and Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are reaching the SW basin from convection being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. This is mostly right off the NW Colombian coast. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin, outside of the areas near the tropical waves. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 85W will move into the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. An active tropical wave across the E Caribbean will cross the Caribbean through Sunday, accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong easterly winds are expected to return to the south central Caribbean and coast of Colombia behind the tropical wave Saturday through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. Convective activity has dissipated across the western Atlantic as the upper trough pushes farther east into the central Atlantic. A surface trough is north of Hispaniola from 20N71W to 27N67W. This is providing an anchor for scattered moderate convection from 22N-28N between 62W-67W. A line of thunderstorms is also seen in the central Atlantic ahead of the upper trough from 29N-31N between 65W-69W. The cold front that was pushing south has now stalled. It enters the waters near 31N25W and stretches west to 25N46W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N56W and a 1020 mb high near 24N30W. Moderate easterly winds are noted over Hispaniola. A ridge extending E to W along 28N will persist through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sunday. An area of active showers and thunderstorms N through NE of Puerto Rico will shift northward over the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR