000 AXNT20 KNHC 082331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the African coast extends its axis along 22W and S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Wave model diagnostic depicts the wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W and S of 11N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of the wave axis mainly S of 06N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's environment. This wave has a surface signature. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, from 15N-20N between 60W-63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W and S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, but the presence of this feature is also enhancing scattered moderate convection across central America mainly W of 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 08N26W to 06N43W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N47W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N51W to 07N57W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered showers are seen within 75 nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 20W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level diffluence prevails over the Florida peninsula and northeast Gulf waters supporting scattered moderate convection mainly N of 28N and E of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 25N85W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevailing across the basin, with strongest speeds noted over the Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas to continue through Mon. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. An upper-level low is centered over the Windward Passage enhancing scattered moderate convection across Cuba and Hispaniola. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin, outside of the areas near the tropical waves. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight. The tropical wave across the Leeward Island and E Caribbean will cross the Caribbean through Sun, accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong easterly winds are expected to return to the south central Caribbean and coast of Colombia Sat night and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently moving through the basin. As an upper level trough moves across the western Atlantic, it is supporting a surface trough near 30N76W to 28N78W. To the east, another surface trough extends from 29N63W to 21N70W. Scattered showers prevail along the troughs. A cold front is pushing southward across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N27W to 27N38W to 27N48W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N53W. Moderate easterly winds are noted in the latest scatterometer data over Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sun. An area of active showers and thunderstorms N through NE of Puerto Rico will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over the next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA