000 AXNT20 KNHC 081051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the west African coast is along 18W S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W S of 11N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the wave from 02N-08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 63W from 06N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the central islands of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, from 12N- 20N between 59W- 64W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-21N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture near and to the west of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N-19N between 79W-88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 08N23W to 06N40W. The ITCZ begins near 06N40W to 05N75W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N48W to 07N55W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 22W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level ridging is filling in behind the upper level trough moving into the western Atlantic. This, along with surface ridging, is providing quiet weather this morning. A surface high analyzed at 1017 mb is located near 25N89W. The Yucatan trough is analyzed from 18N93W to 23N92W which is supporting some showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the southern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the central and western basin with light winds in the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are near the Yucatan trough. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas through Monday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave currently moving through the basin. An upper level low is situated in the Windward Passage and is continuing to enhance strong convection as it moves eastward toward Cuba and Jamaica. This convection is seen from 18N-20N between 73W-78W. Scattered showers are seen moving across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms are seen off the coasts of Colombia and Panama in association with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will reach Central America today. An active tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will cross the Caribbean through Sunday, accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong easterly winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Saturday night and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As an upper level trough moves across the western Atlantic, it is supporting a line of thunderstorms across the area from 29N- 31N between 74W-78W. Thunderstorms are occurring near the Bimini Islands of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen from 27N-31N between 68W- 74W. In the central Atlantic, an upper low along with a surface trough, analyzed from 19N68W to 24N65W, continues to support scattered moderate convection from 21N- 28N between 60W-67W. A cold front is pressing southward across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N30W and stretches westward to 28N48W. Showers are seen along this boundary with thunderstorms seen within 60 nm of the front between 41W- 46W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N55W. Moderate easterly winds are seen in the latest scatterometer data over Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. A ridge along 28N will persist through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sunday. An area of showers and thunderstorms NE of Puerto Rico will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over the next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR