000 AXNT20 KNHC 080535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the west African coast is along 17W S of 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W S of 14N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the wave from 02N-08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen along the central islands of the Lesser Antilles, from 10N- 18N between 58W- 63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture near and to the west of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 13N-20N between 79W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 14N17W to 07N22W to 06N37W. The ITCZ begins near 06N37W to 07N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N48W to the coast of French Guiana near 06N54W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 21W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level trough is sliding eastward over Florida and the eastern Gulf. Most of the significant convection from earlier has now dissipated with some isolated showers seen in the central and east-central Gulf. Surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, with moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, in response to the Yucatan trough, are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout the period. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse each evening through the early morning hours near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave currently moving through the basin. An upper level low is also situated in the Windward Passage and is enhancing strong convection seen near the Haitian coast, from 18N-19N between 73W-76W. Some diurnally driven convection over SE Cuba is also reaching adjacent waters. Scattered showers are seen moving across the Virgin Islands and off the coast of Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. A tropical wave currently along 80W will reach the western Caribbean late tonight and move west of the area by Thursday night. An active tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thursday, then move across the eastern Caribbean through Friday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated thunderstorms continue across the western Atlantic in response to the upper level trough approaching the area, from 24N- 30N between 76W-80W. An upper low along with a surface trough, analyzed from 18N65W to 23N63W, continues to support convection in the central Atlantic from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. A cold front dips in the central Atlantic from 31N30W to 30N45W. Scattered showers are seen along the boundary, with thunderstorms seen from 39W-48W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N53W. Moderate easterly winds are seen in the latest scatterometer data over Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are off the coast of Mauritania. A ridge extending westward along roughly 28N will persist through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds mainly across the waters S of 22N through Sunday. An area of showers and thunderstorms located NE of Puerto Rico is associated with a surface trough, and will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over the next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR