000 AXNT20 KNHC 071043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W S of 13N moving W at 10 kt. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W S of 14N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the northern portion of the wave axis from 09N-15N between 51W-57W. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 75W from 06N- 20N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm of this wave from 15N-17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N24W to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins near 07N41W to 11N53W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough coming off the W Africa from 06N- 11N and E of 25W. Scattered showers are also seen within 60 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring in the central and eastern Gulf from 26N-30N between 83W-91W. There is also numerous strong convection seen in the southern Bay of Campeche, near the Yucatan trough analyzed from 19N92W to 23N88W. This area of strong thunderstorms observed from 18N-21N between 92W-96W is slowly moving east-northeast. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. Tranquil marine conditions of gentle to moderate winds and seas generally less than 4 ft will prevail across the basin through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level trough axis extends across the northern and central Caribbean. This is contributing to isolated convection seen across the west-central Caribbean from 15N-17N between 77W-80W. The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing strong convection across the SW Caribbean, from 09N-13N between 75W-83W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are also moving across the southern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are seen elsewhere in the basin. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is expected to weaken as it moves in the western Caribbean by late Thursday. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move across the eastern Caribbean through Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms observed from 25N- 31N between 70W-78W are moving east-northeast across the western Atlantic. There is also an area of scattered moderate convection north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from 19N- 21N between 66W-70W. A surface trough is moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and is analyzed from 16N62W to 23N60W. This trough, in combination with an inverted upper level trough with an axis along 62W/63W, is producing scattered moderate convection from 21N-27N between 57W-65W. Surface ridging covers the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N60W and a 1023 mb high near 27N47W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in the western Atlantic, mostly N of 29N and W of 68W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also seen north of Hispaniola in addition to moderate to fresh northerly winds near the Cabo Verde Islands. A ridge will continue across the northern part of the forecast area through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of the ridge through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR