000 AXNT20 KNHC 070544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W S of 15N moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W/54W S of 14N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the northern portion of the wave axis from 10N-14N between 51W-56W. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 74W from 07N- 21N moving W at 15-20 kt. Strong winds and a sharp wind shift are noted with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia in addition to the Windward Passage near the northern portion of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N24W to 07N35W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W to 09N52W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 09N54W to the coast of Suriname near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 06N-11N and E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to the Bay of Campeche. Convection that had been occurring earlier this evening has now dissipated with the exception of an isolated thunderstorm off the Florida Panhandle SW of Tallahassee. There is scattered moderate convection across southern Mexico reaching the extreme southern waters of the Bay. Weak surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout the period. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level trough axis extends across the northern and central Caribbean. This is contributing to isolated convection seen across the Greater Antilles and across the northern Caribbean. The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection across the SW Caribbean, mostly observed S of 15N between 75W-83W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are also moving across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are seen elsewhere in the basin. A strong tropical wave currently located near 74W is expected to move through the western Caribbean by late Thursday. A weaker tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move across the eastern Caribbean through Friday night. Neither wave is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated convection covers is seen over the western Atlantic from 24N-31N between 72W-80W. A surface trough is just E of the Leeward Islands from 15N61W to 21N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough from 17N-21N between 56W-61W. An inverted upper low is also igniting scattered moderate convection across the central Atlantic from 20N-26N between 59W- 65W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N61W and a 1024 mb high near 27N44W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in the western Atlantic, mostly N of 29N and W of 68W. There are also moderate to fresh northerly winds near the Cabo Verde Islands. A ridge extending westward from the Bermuda-Azores high will continue across the forecast area through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a strong tropical waves over the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola tonight before weakening on Wednesday. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone development is expected for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR