000 AXNT20 KNHC 062354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W S of 16N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W/53W S of 15N moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis from 03N-14N. A strong tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean from 20N70W to 15N71W to 08N71W moving W at 15-20 kt. Strong winds and a sharp wind shift are noted with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N30W to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins near 08N39W and continues to 08N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between 12W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A sharp upper level trough extends from Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico enhancing convection over most of the the Gulf of Mexico except the SW Gulf. Weak surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on two tropical waves moving across the basin. A sharp upper level trough axis extends from E Cuba to NE Nicaragua enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Cuba, Jamaica, and Central America from Honduras to Panama. Gusty winds, building seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a strong tropical wave that is currently located near 70W/71W. This tropical wave is expected to move through the western Caribbean by late Thu. A weaker tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles on Thu and move across the eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Neither wave is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic S of 30N and W of 72W. Widely scattered moderate convection covers this area to include the central and N Bahamas. A surface trough is just E of the Leeward Islands from 21N58W to 15N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the trough axis. A large 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N43W. Over the W Atlantic, a ridge extending westward from the Bermuda- Azores high will continue across the forecast area through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a strong tropical waves over the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola tonight before weakening on Wed. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone development is expected for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa