000 AXNT20 KNHC 061039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W S of 16N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment within 100 nm on either side of the axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along is along 50W S of 14N is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 09N-14N between 48W-52W. The interaction of the northern portion of the wave with an upper- level low near 23N60W is reflected as a surface trough that extends from 12N56W to 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough from 13N- 22N between 54W- 58W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 66W from 06N- 18N is moving W at 10 kt. This feature is also well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within this wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 65W- 72W. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 81W from 08N-20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm on either side of the axis N of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 10N23W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near 05N51W and continues to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 24W- 38W. A line of thunderstorms is beginning to move off the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone, from 06N-10N and E of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough continues to extend across the central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. This is aiding in maintaining isolated convection across the Gulf, seen from 23N- 30N between 86W-93W. The diurnal trough across the Bay of Campeche is analyzed from 20N92W to 22N90W. Surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light and gentle winds across the Gulf with some moderate southwesterly winds in the eastern basin. Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the next few days, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and low seas to continue across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The scattered moderate convection that was impacting the Windward Passage has dissipated. However, the strong convection continues off the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. This convective activity is seen S of 11N between 76W-84W. There are also isolated thunderstorms W of the Windward Islands. Isolated showers are quickly moving across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia in addition to Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Light to gentle trades are seen elsewhere across the basin. Gusty winds, building seas and scattered showers will accompany a strong tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. The wave is expected to reach the central Caribbean Wednesday then move into the western Caribbean by Friday. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. As the upper level trough stretching across the Gulf slides eastward, it is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic from 27N-31N between 67W- 80W. The upper level low centered near 23N60W is igniting isolated thunderstorms from 22N-25N between 58W-62W. Another area of isolated thunderstorms is seen in the central Atlantic from 27N-29N between 56W-59W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N60W and a 1023 mb high near 28N35W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh winds north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are off the coast of Mauritania and along the Cabo Verde Islands. A ridge will continue across the area through Saturday. The gradient between this ridge and a tropical wave moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas associated with a passing trough will affect the waters N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Friday and Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR