000 AXNT20 KNHC 060529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0519 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W S of 15N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment within 100 nm on either side of the axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along is along 49W S of 13N is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 07N-14N between 45W-51W. The interaction of the northern portion of the wave with an upper- level low near 22N60W is reflected as a surface trough that extends from 12N55W to 20N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough from 13N-21N between 53W- 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 04N- 19N is moving W at 10 kt. This feature is also well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within this wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 62W- 69W. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 80W from 08N-20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the northern portion of the wave from 17N-21N between 79W-81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N24W to 10N40W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 22W- 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough continues to extend across the central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. This is aiding in maintaining convection across the Gulf, seen from 24N- 28N between 84W-94W. Surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light and gentle winds across the Gulf. Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. A trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move westward across the Bay of Campeche at night through the period accompanied by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving off the Cuban and Haitian coast, N of 19N between 74W-79W. Furthermore, the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection across the SW Caribbean. Numerous strong convection is seen off the coasts of Colombia and Panama, S of 10N between 76W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 11N between 80W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia in addition to Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Light to gentle trades are seen elsewhere across the basin. Gusty winds, building seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a strong tropical wave that is presently moving across the eastern Caribbean. The tropical wave is expected to move across the central Caribbean through mid week, and into the western Caribbean by the end of the week. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon and move across the eastern Caribbean during Thursday and through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western Atlantic, between S Florida and the northern Bahamas, from 24N-27N between 77W-80W. The upper level low centered near 22N60W is igniting isolated thunderstorms from 22N-25N between 57W-62W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N60W and a 1025 mb high near 28N39W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh winds north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are off the coast of Mauritania and along the Cabo Verde Islands. A high pressure ridge will continue across the forecast area through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola early through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and building seas associated with a surface trough will impact the waters north of Puerto Rico Friday and the water between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic Friday night through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR