000 AXNT20 KNHC 042328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 728 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 23W from 17N southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 21W- 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 41W from 15N southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. A recent ASCAT pass indicates that a weak low pressure is centered along the wave's axis near 08N41W. This wave is also well depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-10N between 40W- 50W. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 58W from 18N southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-17N between 54W-60W. The wave is already bringing heavy rain and gusty winds in portion of the Lesser Antilles. A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 73W from 21N southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 70W- 80W. The strongest showers prevail onshore along the Venezuela/Colombia coastline. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 18N16W to 10N27W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection from the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection are within 08N- 10N between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridge is building across basin while an upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, across the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. These features are keeping light to gentle southeast winds across much of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the eastern half of the basin east of 90W affecting the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 20N94W with scattered showers. Weak high pressure will remain across the north- central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. A trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move westward across the Bay of Campeche at night through the period accompanied by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the central Caribbean. Most of the convection currently occurring across the basin is due to the proximity of two tropical waves. Scattered showers are also noted south of 11N between 76W-83W due to the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with strongest speeds prevailing across the south central portion. The tropical wave along 73W will move across the rest of the central Caribbean through early Mon evening, and across the western Caribbean Tue through early Wed night. Another tropical wave, with its axis roughly about 150 nm east of the Lesser Antilles is producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 16N and between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. This system will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, and move across the eastern Caribbean on Mon through Tue night, then slow down as it moves across the central Caribbean Wed through Thu night. Expect increasing winds and seas, as well as showers and thunderstorms to impact the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Expect fresh to strong trades to pulse over the central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Mon night, then over the eastern Caribbean and the eastern part of the central Caribbean S of 15N between 68W and 74W through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves. The mid-to upper level trough is bringing scattered moderate convection across Florida and the western Atlantic west of 75W. To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N60W and another 1023 mb high near 32N32W. The convection along and east of Florida will weaken tonight. A surface ridge will continue build across the forecast area during the next 24-48 hours. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a pair of tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean will support fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola, including the Approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA