231 AXNT20 KNHC 032351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 18W from 17N southward, is moving west at around 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted from 07N-10N and east of 20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 33W from 14N southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. This wave is also depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 28W-37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 16N52W to a 1012 mb low near 13N52W to 05N52W, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 49W-55W. This area has a potential for a gradual tropical development in the forecast for the next few days while it moves WNW across the Lesser Antilles. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from 20N southward, is moving west at around 10 kt. TPW imagery depicts an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted north of 17N between 67W-72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N16W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 10N62W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridge is building across the western Gulf of Mexico while an upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, across the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. These features are keeping light to gentle southeast winds across much of the basin. Scattered showers are noted near the coast of Louisiana associated to a surface trough that extends from a 1014 mb low near 30N90W to 29N93W. Another surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf from 27N82W to 25N84W with scattered showers. Weak high pressure will remain across the north- central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. The usual thermal trough will develop every day over the Yucatan Peninsula and move west over the Bay of Campeche with locally fresh winds and scattered showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted over western Cuba and Yucatan Channel. To the south, the monsoon trough is enhancing showers south of 10N between 78W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with strongest speeds prevailing across the south central portion. The tropical wave along 68W will continue moving west across the central and western Caribbean through Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean tonight, and again Sun night, then remain moderate to fresh through Wed. The elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles will move over the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sun, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Sun night. This system will bring increasing winds and seas, as well as shower and thunderstorm activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves. The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate convection across Florida and the western Atlantic west of 74W. To the east, a surface trough extends into the central Atlantic from a 1019 mb low near 34N47W to 26N55W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N56W and a 1024 mb high near 32N38W. The convection over the west Atlantic will continue through early Sun. High pressure will continue building over the central Atlantic through Mon. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles is forecast to move northwestward, by the middle of the next week, with increased winds and seas, as well as shower and thunderstorm activity. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA