000 AXNT20 KNHC 031121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the NW of the ITCZ between 47W and 54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 60W. It is possible that this system may become a tropical depression early next week, while it moves west-northwestward toward the Leeward Islands, even though the upper level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the wave. A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, inland, moving through Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains/coastal waters of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 11N20W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 10N25W, to 07N32W and 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 14N42W and 06N57W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 12N between 10W and 20W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 40W eastward, within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ and within 270 nm to the south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, to 25N93W, to 20N98W inland, in Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, elsewhere from 83W eastward, and within 120 nm of the coast between SE Louisiana and the Deep South of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are are spread across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, from the Florida Big Bend, to 25N85W, to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N74W 28N79W 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of South Carolina, from 31N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers have been moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, NW of the line that passes through 32N78W 26N75W, to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba. A weak ridge will prevail over the northern Gulf this weekend. High pressure will build west across Florida into the eastern Gulf Sun night through Tue. Mostly tranquil marine conditions will continue several more days, with seas remaining 3 ft or less across the entire basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 31N53W cyclonic circulation center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 11N northward from 78W, in the Windward Passage and between Cuba and Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W 09N78W, through southern Costa Rica, beyond 09N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 75W westward. A tropical wave will move west across the central and western Caribbean through Mon. Winds in the south central Caribbean will diminish tonight, then remain moderate to fresh Sun through Wed. A tropical wave near 49W will move over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue night with increased winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N74W 28N79W 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of South Carolina, from 31N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers have been moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, NW of the line that passes through 32N78W 26N75W, to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba. An upper level trough extends from a 31N53W cyclonic circulation center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 34N51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 330 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 30N43W 24N55W 19N67W. A trough off the east coast of Florida will drift northward and weaken today. High pressure will build over the Central Atlantic along 27N Sun and Mon. A tropical wave will reach the Leeward Islands early next week, then move northwest across the SW N Atlantic waters through Wed with increased winds and seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt