000 AXNT20 KNHC 022347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic is along 29W south of 15N, moving W at 15 kt. A weak 1013 mb low pressure remains behind the wave axis near 09N24W. Scattered showers extend out 100 nm on either side of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W south of 14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-14N between 43W-50W. Looking ahead, this wave will continue to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is still possible. A tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. A tropical wave is along 64W from 21N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt and is approaching the Greater Antilles. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across the Lesser Antilles, from 14N-21N between 61W-64W. This wave will move through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 88W south of 21N, moving W around 10 kt. This wave has reduced its motion in the last 24 hours as it moves across Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted across Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador from 11N-16N between 84W-89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 13N17W to 08N28W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 07N30W to 10N43W. It then continues west of another tropical wave near 09N48W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from 06N-11N between 50W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... A large mid-upper level trough continues to dig across the eastern Gulf extending into the Bay of Campeche. The mid-level low centered near 29N87W while strong ridge builds from the west. This trough is maintaining a moist, unstable airmass across Florida peninsula and the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a trough is seen from 23N86W to 28N83W with a 1013 mb low along this trough near 25N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of this trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the west-central Gulf from 23N-28N between 90W-94W. Light to gentle winds continue across the basin with moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. The weak low pressure trough over the eastern Gulf will slowly move northward through Saturday which will produce increased showers and thunderstorms offshore. The trough will dissipate by Sunday, allowing high pressure to build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas to northeast Jamaica, from 25N73W to 18N76W. Most of the convective activity occurring across the Greater Antilles is over land. However, some thunderstorms are seen seen near the Cayman Islands and south of Cuba from 18N-23N between 76W-84W. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean with light winds in the eastern and western basin. The tropical wave near 64W will move over the eastern Caribbean through Saturday night, then cross the western basin from Sunday through Monday. A moderate pressure gradient across the Caribbean will promote fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Saturday night, becoming moderate to fresh Sunday through Wednesday. Another tropical wave near 46W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early next week and may produce increased winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves. The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate convection across Florida and the western Atlantic. A surface trough is seen in the area from 27N79W to 31N78W. This is also acting as a focal point for convection which is noted from 24-31N between 75W-80W. Another upper level trough extends across the central Atlantic into the central Caribbean, igniting scattered thunderstorms from 20N-28N between 56W-66W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted from 28N-31N between 43W-53W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N43W. A trough off the east coast of Florida will slowly move northward and weaken through Sat. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and locally rough seas are expected east of Florida tonight and Saturday. Bermuda high pressure will build over the Central Atlantic along 27N Sunday through early next week. A tropical wave will reach the Leeward Islands early next week and may produce increased winds and seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR