000 AXNT20 KNHC 012353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is south of the Cabo Verde Islands along 23W S of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure is noted along the wave axis near 11N24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between 21W-27W An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W S of 16N, moving W around 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the wave axis near 09N39W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave from 07N-12N between 37W-43W. Looking ahead, a slow development is expected with this system during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward around 10 kt. A tropical depression is likely to form several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56/58W from 05N- 24N, moving W around 10-15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 17N between near 53W-60W. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles in the next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands. A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 83W from 09N-22N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted between 12N-18N between 81W- 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 11N25W to 07N45W. ITCZ continues from 07N45W to 10N56W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted along the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A large upper-level trough continues to dig across the eastern Gulf with the mid-level low centered near 28N88W. This is bringing moist, unstable air across Florida and the southeastern U.S. At the surface, ridging prevails with a surface trough extending off the west coast of Florida from 28N82W to 26N83W. Most of the convective activity is over land. However, scattered thunderstorms are seen from 24N- 30N between 82W-91W. Light to gentle winds are seen across most of the basin with moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the northern Gulf for the next couple days. A low pressure trough will move into the eastern Gulf late Friday into Saturday, producing increased showers and thunderstorms offshore. High pressure will build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the northeast Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Turks and Caicos to western Haiti near 18N74W. This is giving way to scattered moderate convection across most of the Greater Antilles and the northern Caribbean from 17N-20N between 67W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving across Nicaragua and Honduras with some of the activity moving into the Gulf of Honduras, S of 17N and W of 84W. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean with light winds in the western basin. A Caribbean tropical wave near 83W will reach Central America by Friday. Another tropical wave near 58W will move over the Tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean through Saturday, then remain fresh through early next week. A tropical wave well east of the area near 39W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early next week and produce increased winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves. The mid-upper level trough over the eastern Gulf is bringing scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic from 25N-32N between 75W-80W. A surface trough extends off the Florida coast from 32N51W to 31N52W. This system has a near 0 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days. Farther south, a trough extends from the Turks and Caicos to Haiti from 28N47W to 26N48W. The significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 32N37W to 30N39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the trough from 29N-32N between 34W-39W. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 31N30W. A trough extending from near the Turks and Caicos Islands to western Haiti will move northwestward across the Bahamas tonight through Friday, then across southern and central Florida Friday through Saturday before weakening by Sunday. This trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and locally rough seas. High pressure will build over the Central Atlantic along roughly 27N early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR