000 AXNT20 KNHC 011803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along 21W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure is noted along the wave axis near 11N22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N- 10N between 21W-27W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 02N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. A 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near 08N38W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave from 08N-13N between 38W-45W. Looking ahead, a gradual development is expected with this system for the next day or two while it moves west- northwest. Environment conditions become more conducive by Saturday and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend east of the Lesser Antilles. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54/56W from 04N-25N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 19N between near 51W-55W. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles in the next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands. A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 81W from 09N-22N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of 18N between 79W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 11N30W to 07N42W. ITCZ continues from 07N42W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted along the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A large upper-level low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico centered near 27N88W. An upper-level trough extends from western Pennsylvania to the upper low over the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche to Mexico near 18N98W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the eastern and southern Gulf from the coast of Florida to 93W. A surface trough over 21N93W to 18N93W in the Bay of Campeche is inducing scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail throughout most of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest ASCAT pass. Looking ahead, weak ridging will remain over the northern Gulf the next several days, allowing gentle to moderate winds and low seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extending from the Turks and Caicos through Haiti to 17N73W is responsible for scattered moderate convection south of the Mona Passage from 16N-18N between 67W-69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 15N between the Virgin Islands and Haiti. Upper-level ridging and subsidence are covering much of the central Caribbean. A Caribbean tropical wave along 81W will reach Central America Fri. A tropical wave along 54/56W will move across the Tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean through Sat morning. A tropical wave well east of the area, over the central Atlantic, will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early next week. This wave is likely to significantly increase winds and seas over the Tropical N Atlantic early next week as it has potential to strengthen to a tropical low pressure system. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves, including the wave that is currently bringing significant showers and tstorms to the area between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. A surface trough extends from 23N70W to Haiti. Scattered showers prevail along and east of the trough near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Another trough extends from 31N77W to 25N80W along the eastern FL coast. This is producing an area of disturbed weather in the Straits of FL and the northwest and central Bahamas. Conditions could briefly become conducive for development over the weekend before the system merges with a front and accelerates northeast off the southeast U.S. coast. A trough near Haiti will move northwestward across the Bahamas through late tonight into early Fri, then across southern Florida during Fri and across central and northern Florida from Fri afternoon through Sat night. This trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorm, with strong gusty winds, rough seas and heavy rainfall. The trough will become diffuse over the far northwest part of the area by late Sun. Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward near 27N early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres