000 AXNT20 KNHC 011039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along 21W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm E and 240 nm W of the wave axis from 07N-12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37/38W from 03N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis near 10N37W. Scattered showers with isolated moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 32W-46W. Looking ahead, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for further development this weekend as the wave moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week east of the Lesser Antilles. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54/55W from 04N-24N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable water imagery. An ASCAT pass from Wednesday evening depicts the wave at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the wave axis north of 21N. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles by late Friday bringing some rainfall to the islands. A tropical wave extends from just east of Miami Florida near 26N79W to 20N80W to 09N80W and is moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along the northern part of the wave between the northwest Bahamas, South Florida and the north coast of central Cuba from 23N-27N between 77W-82W. Elsewhere from 18N-27N between 73W-84W, scattered showers and tstorms are occurring. Near the southern portion of the wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen over N Colombia, E Panama, E Nicaragua and the far SW Caribbean S of 10N between 75W-79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N24W to 10N30W to 09N44W. No significant convection is noted other than the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A large upper-level low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico centered near 28N88W. An upper-level trough extends from western Pennsylvania to the upper low over the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche to Mexico near 18N99W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the eastern and southern Gulf, southeast of a line from 30N89W to 21N97W. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is inducing scattered moderate convection south of 19.5N between 93W-96W. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail throughout most of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest ASCAT pass. Looking ahead, weak ridging will remain over the northern Gulf the next several days, allowing gentle to moderate winds and tranquil seas of 3 ft or less across the basin to continue. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extending from the Turks and Caicos through Haiti to 17.5N73W is responsible for scattered moderate convection south of the Mona Passage from 16N-18N between 67W-69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 15N between the Virgin Islands and Haiti. Upper-level ridging and subsidence are covering much of the central Caribbean. The surface trough over Hispaniola will continue to move west- northwest, bringing enhanced rainfall to Hispaniola through today. The rains will affect eastern and central Cuba through early Saturday. A Caribbean tropical wave along 80W will reach Central America Fri. A tropical wave along 55W will move across the Tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean through Sat morning. A tropical wave in the Atlantic along 38W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves, including the wave that is currently bringing significant showers and tstorms to the area between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. A surface trough extends from 24N70W to Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail along and east of the trough near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This trough will move NW across the Bahamas into central Florida through Sat night as moisture from the trough merges with moisture from the tropical wave ahead of it. Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and areas of strong gusty winds with heavy rainfall are likely. Farther east, a surface trough is from 31N52W to 26N55W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 32N50W to 25N57W to 24N72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 21N-32N between 48W-54.5W. The convection is due to the surface trough, tropical wave and upper-level features. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen