000 AXNT20 KNHC 302357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST consists of gale-force winds for the marine zone AGADIR, near the coast of Morocco, until 31/0000 UTC. The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure near the Azores and low pressure in North Africa, will lead to the gale-force northerly winds. Please read the latest high seas forecast from METEO FRANCE, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 04N-19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 28W-34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 04N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical is along 70W/71W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. A portion of this wave is forecast to move west- northwest during the next several days towards the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N25W to 11N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-13N between 10W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 30/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the entire Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, E Texas, and SW Louisiana. Similar convection is over the NW Gulf N of 27N and W of 90W. Mostly fair weather is the remainder of the Gulf waters. Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the northern Gulf through the next few days providing for generally a gentle to moderate wind flow and relatively low seas across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave. As of 30/2100 UTC, a 1007 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N72W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of Venezuela. Besides the convection already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is over Honduras and Panama. As the tropical wave crosses to the western Caribbean during the next couple of days, tradewind easterlies will increase to fresh or strong in the central Caribbean beginning Wed night. Another tropical wave, currently over the Tropical N Atlantic, will move across the eastern Caribbean beginning on Wed afternoon accompanied by similar wind and weather conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above. Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N50W to 21N50W. Scattered showers are from 26N-32N between 43W-50W. A 1027 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N33W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N59W. Upper level diffluence W of the center is enhancing showers. Another small upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N48W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of this low. A portion of a tropical wave will bring fresh to strong east to southeast tradewinds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the W Atlantic. The wave will pass near Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos Islands through Wed, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds as well as showers and thunderstorms. This system will move across the Bahamas Thu evening, then northward to just off the Florida east coast Fri night through Sat night. There is a low chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next several days. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa