000 AXNT20 KNHC 301034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, through today until 31/0000 UTC. The pressure gradient between high pressure near the Azores and low pressure over North Africa will lead to gale force northerly winds. Please read the latest high seas forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22/23W from 04N-16N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is W of the wave axis from 06N-12N between 22W-29W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development this weekend, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days as the system continues westward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 02N-20N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 06N-11N between 37W- 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-10N between 48W-56W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 14N-17N between 55W-58W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 23N67W to 17N69W to 06N70W and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17.5N-23N between 63W-68W, including near and north of Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and portions of the southeast Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become marginally conducive for development when the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and NW Bahamas. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N23W to 09N43W to 07N50W to 08N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are seen from 07N-12N between 30W-35W and from 04N-09N between 45W- 48W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the west coast of Africa from 04N-11N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds cover most of the Gulf in the area surrounding the high. Elsewhere, moderate SE winds are over the far west-central Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are north of western Cuba and in the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are observed south of Louisiana, and this is being influenced by an upper-level trough that extends from western North Carolina to the central Gulf of Mexico to the southwest Gulf. A high pres ridge centered near the northern Gulf Coast will support gentle to moderate winds through the end of this week. Surface troughs will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and generate fresh to locally strong winds during the overnight hours as they move W over the Bay of Campeche, especially through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave. Upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen across the NW Caribbean from 15.5N- 23N between 77W-89W. Within this area, scattered to numerous tstorms are from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is spreading convection over NW Venezuela and the far SW Caribbean, south of 9.5N between 75W-79W. Subsidence is over much of the central Caribbean Sea. A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong winds will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the tropical waves. The first wave will impact Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today, then all of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba Wednesday, bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the region as well as showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave will quickly follow and could bring similar conditions to Puerto Rico Wednesday and the Dominican Republic Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above. Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. A small area of upper-level cyclonic flow near the NW Bahamas is leading to scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the western Atlantic from 23N-32N, west of 77W. The tail end of a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N73W to 30N76W. Isolated showers are near the trough. Another area of showers is seen from 27N-30N between 66W-69W. An upper-level low near 28N60W is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 27N-32N between 56W-64W. Farther east, another upper level low is seen near 30N46W. A surface trough extends from 30N47W to 21N48W. Scattered tstorms are near the upper low and northern part of the surface trough from 25N-32N between 43W-49W. A dissipating cold front enters the discussion area near 32N10W to 29N18W to 32N26W. No significant precipitation is noted with this feature. A tropical wave will bring gusty winds as well as showers and thunderstorms to the Puerto Rico waters today. The wave will pass near Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos Islands Wed and Thu, accompanied by fresh to strong winds as well as showers and thunderstorms. This system will enter the Bahamas late Thursday then track N just off the E coast of Florida Fri night and Sat. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen