000 AXNT20 KNHC 292355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING : A tightening surface pressure gradient, between low pressure in North Africa and high pressure near the Azores, is leading to northerly gale-force winds off the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, today, starting at 29/1200 UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo France. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in Agadir into Tuesday. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 30/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of NORTH near gale or gale in: AGADIR and TARFAYA. Please read the latest high seas forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 04N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is W of the wave axis from 07N-11N between 20W-26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 35W-43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-10N between 43W-51W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 07N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands from 15N-21N between 61W-68W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Windward Islands and N Venezuela from 07N-12N between 60W-69W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W to 10N22W to 09N39W to 07N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over W Africa from 10N-15N between 11W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high. Elsewhere, 15 kt SE winds are over the far W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, E Texas, and Louisiana. Mostly fair weather is over much of the Gulf waters. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. The surface high will support gentle to moderate winds through the end of this week. Surface troughs will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and generate fresh to strong winds during the overnight hours as they move W over the Bay of Campeche, especially early in the week. Weak surface troughs will also develop over the Florida Peninsula, then move W and bring showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave. As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1006 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Besides the convection already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and Panama. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is inland over NE Nicaragua. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered E of the Lesser Antilles near 17N56W. A ridge axis extends W over the Caribbean to NE Nicaragua near 14N84W. A good amount of subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea. A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong winds will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the tropical waves. The first wave will impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Tuesday, bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the region as well as showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical will quickly follow and could bring similar conditions to Puerto Rico Wednesday and Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above. Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. The tail end of a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to 28N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N44W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the center. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N62W. Upper level diffluence W of the center is enhancing showers. Another small upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N45W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this low. Over the W Atlantic, the surface trough will gradually dissipate by Wednesday. A tropical wave will bring gusty winds as well as showers and thunderstorms to the Puerto Rico waters tonight and Tuesday. The wave will pass N of Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos Islands Wed and Thu, accompanied by fresh to strong winds as well as showers and thunderstorms. This system will enter the Bahamas Fri then track N just off the E coast of Florida Fri night and Sat. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa