000 AXNT20 KNHC 291715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING : A tightening surface pressure gradient, between low pressure in North Africa and high pressure near the Azores, is leading to northerly gale-force winds off the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, today, starting at 29/1200 UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo France. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in Agadir into Tuesday. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 30/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of NORTH near gale or gale in: AGADIR and TARFAYA. Please read the latest high seas forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 16N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the waters from 03N to 16N between 16W and 26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 18N southward. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 24N between 30W and 43W. ITCZ-related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 34W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 19N southward. Nearby ITCZ precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 42W and 45W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 40W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 22N southward. Rainshowers: scattered moderate to strong from 17N to 19N between 62W and 64W; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N to 16N between 64W and 67W; and isolated moderate elsewhere from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 59W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Mauritania near 18N16W, curving to 15N17W, 11N19W, 09N38W, 08N45W, 07N46W, and 07N51W. The ITCZ continues from 07N51W to 07N56W and 08N59W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 34W and 40W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 42W and 45W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is in SE Alabama, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 20N along the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Overall high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds through the week. Surface troughs will develop during the afternoons on the Yucatan Peninsula. The troughs will move westward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, especially early in the week, and generate fresh to strong winds during the overnight hours. Weak surface troughs also will develop in the Florida Peninsula, and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing some rainshowers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N northward from the Windward Passage westward. The following precipitation is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea, associated with the 64W/65W tropical wave: scattered moderate to strong from 17N to 19N between 62W and 64W; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N to 16N between 64W and 67W; and isolated moderate elsewhere from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 59W and 70W. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through the border areas of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 11N southward from 76W westward. The pressure gradient, between high pressure to the north and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central section today. The gradient will relax as a part of tropical waves cross through mid-week, leading to lower wind speeds until late week, when the gradient will restrengthen in the wake of the tropical waves. The first aforementioned wave will impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and Tuesday, bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the region along with numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave on its heels may bring similar conditions Wednesday into Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 37W and 48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a second upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N between 56W and 66W. A surface trough extends from 29N45W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 26N43W, curving to 22N46W. One surface trough is along 57W/58W from 25N to 29N. A second surface trough is along 69W/70W from 22N to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N northward between 40W and 68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 28N northward from 68W westward. Remnant instability from an earlier stationary front, and a surface trough from 32N71W to 31N72W, are in the area of the precipitation. Low pressure in the far northwest waters will dissipate gradually, today and on Tuesday. A tropical wave will bring rainshowers and thunderstorms to the waters that are near Puerto Rico, as well as fresh to possibly strong winds from this afternoon through Tuesday. This wave then will move to the north of Hispaniola and into the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing fresh to strong winds as well as rainshowers and thunderstorms, before the feature enters the Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida by the end of the week. Gentle breezes will prevail elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt