000 AXNT20 KNHC 290001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 16W, from 17N southward along the African coast. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-17N extending 300 nm on either side of the wave. At this time, the scattered moderate strong convection is affecting Senegal, the coast of Guinea and Guinea- Bissau. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 17N southward, moving at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 04N-09N between 33W-38W near the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 17N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the vicinity of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 17N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is impacting the Lesser Antilles Islands associated to the wave. Showers and thunderstorms are concentrated from 12N-18N and between 58W-65W. This disturbance is expected to move w-nw across the north central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and some flooding across the islands including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This system is forecast to emerge over the straights of FL by the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal near 15N17W, to 07N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins from 07N48W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate showers are along noted along the monsoon trough from 05-09N between 25W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico while ridging is in place across the eastern Gulf into the western Atlantic. At the surface a 1022 mb high pressure extends into the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT shows light anticyclonic flow across the Gulf. Scattered showers are present north of 27N between 90W-96W. To the south, a surface trough is present in the Bay of Campeche from 20N-23N between 95W-96W. Surface ridging dominating the gulf waters will generally support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Fri night. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and generate fresh to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough cuts across Cuba, to the Gulf of Honduras. Upper level ridges are on either side of the trough. Most of the afternoon convection in the Greater Antilles with a few showers near the coast of Cuba and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and tstorms are present near the coast of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. To the east, the convection near the Lesser Antilles is associated to a tropical wave along 65W south of the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is expected to move w-nw across the north central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and some flooding across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This system is forecast to emerge over the straights of FL by the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development. Ridging over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean tonight and Mon. Near gale force winds are expected tonight along the coast of Colombia. Winds and seas will subside Mon night through Thu as the ridge weakens, then increase Thu night as the ridge rebuilds. A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles is producing showers, tstms and gusty winds over the eastern basin and tropical Atlantic waters. The wave will impact Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands adjacent waters tonight through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is along 31N74W to Cape Canaveral in Florida. Scattered showers extend 180 to 200 nm southeast of the boundary and west of 70W including the central and northern Bahamas. A few showers are near 31N46W to 26N43W associated to a weak trough. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1023 mb high near 35N52W, and another high pressure near 35N37W. A weakening stationary front extending from 31N74W to just S of Cape Canaveral Florida near 28N80.5W will dissipate tonight. A tropical wave moving across the E Caribbean on Mon will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters Mon night, including the approaches to the Mona Passage. Elsewhere, Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail. A surface trough moving WNW from just N of Puerto Rico Wed night to just E of Florida by Friday night will be accompanied by strong winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres