699 AXNT20 KNHC 281034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is exiting west Africa, with axis along 14W from 04N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment between 10W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N31W to a 1011 mb low near 11N31W to 04N31W, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers is noted from 05N-15N between 28W- 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 19N southward. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt and is depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 61W from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-18N between 57W- 64W, affecting the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave with axis along 91W from 20N southward, is moving west at about 15 kt. This wave is enhancing convection across the northern portion of Central America and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 11N24W to 10N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N46W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N88W. The only convection area at this time resides over the Bay of Campeche, enhanced by the thermal trough coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is analyzed across the far east Gulf from 27N82W to 25N82W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. The surface ridge will keep the same wind pattern over the weekend. The trough over the Florida Peninsula will create northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, but little additional impact is expected. The thermal surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will aide in the development of pulses of fresh winds over the Bay of Campeche, mainly during the overnights. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern Caribbean south of 10N between 74W-82W. Scattered showers are also noted over the far northwest Caribbean north of 18N and west of 75W. Dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, and moderate easterly winds elsewhere. The gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue generating fresh to strong trade winds across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon, then winds will subside. Winds will pulse to near gale force tonight along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will return by Thu. The tropical wave in the east Caribbean will cross the Lesser Antilles today and impact waters near Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the first part of the week. Fresh to possibly strong winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Four tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front remains over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to the coast of FL near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm southeast of the front and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a pair of surface highs centered along 35N. Dry conditions prevail across the basin. The stationary front will continue to weaken today and dissipate Mon. Light to gentle winds will dominate the region, except for the SE forecast waters where a tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. Winds will be locally strong tonight along the N coast of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA