000 AXNT20 KNHC 280523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis along 12W from 04N-20N. This wave is still over western Africa. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment between 10W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N30W to a 1013 mb low near 10N30W to 04N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers is noted from 05N- 15N between 25W- 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W from 19N southward. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt and is depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 59W from 20N southward, is moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-18N between 56W-63W, affecting the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave with axis along 88W from 20N southward, is moving west at about 15 kt. This wave is enhancing convection across the northern portion of Central America and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Guinea near 12N16W to 09N36W. The ITCZ begins near 09N43W to 08N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over eastern U.S.. The only convection area at this time resides over the Bay of Campeche, enhanced by the thermal trough coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. The thermal surface trough will continue forming over the Yucatan Peninsula everyday then move over the Bay of Campeche at night with fresh to strong winds. Otherwise, surface ridging will maintain light to moderate winds over the basin through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-82W. Scattered showers are also noted over the far northwest Caribbean north of 18N and west of 77W. Dry conditions prevail across the northeastern half of the basin, where latest TPW imagery shows a drier environment prevailing in this region. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, and moderate easterly winds elsewhere. The gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure over northern Colombia will generate fresh to strong trade winds across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon, then winds will subside. Winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela through tonight. Strong winds could return by Thu. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles today. Fresh to strong winds and convection will accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Four tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front remains over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to the coast of FL near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm southeast of the front and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a pair of surface highs centered along 35N. Dry conditions prevail across the basin. The stationary front will continue to weaken today and dissipate Mon. Light to gentle winds will dominate the region, except for the SE forecast waters where a tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. Winds will be locally strong tonight along the N coast of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA