000 AXNT20 KNHC 271021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 04N-20N, moving W at about 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 25W-31W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W from 05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb surface low has developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N38W. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near the low. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 54W from 04N-20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave from 08N-14N between 50W-60W. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79W from 05N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection are noted inland especially over Panama, Costa Rica. A tropical wave is analyzed over Central America, with axis along 90W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The convection related to this wave prevails over the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 13N25W to 10N50W. The ITCZ continues from 10N50W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted along these boundaries at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the northeastern portion of the basin, analyzed as a weakening stationary front from 29N85W to 29N83W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the front. To the northwest, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N93W to 27N97W with scattered showers. To the southwest, the Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough is moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin except the Bay of Campeche, where the trough is enhancing winds to reach the fresh category. The front will completely dissipate today. The surface trough will form everyday over the Yucatan Peninsula and move over the Bay of Campeche with fresh to strong winds and scattered showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the basin. At the surface, the monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W- 82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over northern Colombia west across the SW Caribbean waters to the coast of Nicaragua. Drier conditions prevail across the Lesser Antilles and eastern half of the basin, where latest TPW shows a drier environment prevailing in the region. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong easterly flow across the central Caribbean and moderate easterly in the east Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure near the South American coast will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across most of the central and southwest Caribbean through the period, with winds pulsing to near gale-force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun, bringing showers and fresh winds to the Windward Islands and tropical Atlantic waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic from 30N81W to 31N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and west of 74W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 34N55W and a 1027 mb high near 36N36W. Dry conditions prevail across the Atlantic with the exception of scattered showers from 24N-26N between 59W- 69W. The stationary front will remain near 30N through the weekend, then dissipate on Mon. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate the forecast waters, except for north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA