000 AXNT20 KNHC 270544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 24W-29W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1015 mb surface low has developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N37W. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near the low. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 38W from 03N-18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave between 47W-50W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from 06N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and in Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection are noted inland especially over northern coast of Colombia. A tropical wave is analyzed over Central America and the far western Caribbean, with axis along 88W from 03N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The convection related to this wave prevails over the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal near 12N16W to 08N26W to 13N37W to 13N41W. The ITCZ continues from 13N41W to 13N45W, then resumes west of the tropical wave from 11N50W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ mainly W of 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the northeastern portion of the basin, analyzed as a warm front from 28N93W to 29N87W, then becomes stationary from that point to 29N83W. Scattered showers are noted within 250 nm south of the fronts. To the southwest, the Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough is moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The front will dissipate by Sat as it moves north. Otherwise, the surface trough will form everyday over the Yucatan Peninsula and move over the Bay of Campeche with fresh to strong winds and scattered showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the basin. At the surface, the monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W- 82W. extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N74W in Colombia across Panama near 09N77W into the Eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over northern Colombia west across the SW Caribbean waters to the coast of Nicaragua. Isolated strong convection is also seen in the southern coast of Cuba and western Jamaica. Much drier conditions prevail across the Lesser Antilles where latest TPW shows a drier environment in the region. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong easterly flow across the central Caribbean and moderate easterly in the easterly Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure near the South American coast will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across most of the central and southwest Caribbean through the period, with winds pulsing to near gale-force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun, bringing showers and fresh winds to the Windward Islands and tropical Atlantic waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level trough extends from the central Gulf and across the southeast plains. A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic from 31N75W to N Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and west of 74W. A 1029 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 36N36W. Dry conditions prevail across the Atlantic with the exception of scattered showers from 24N-26N between 59W-69W. The stationary front will remain near 30N through Sun, then dissipate on Mon. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate the forecast waters, except for north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA