000 AXNT20 KNHC 252352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is present along the coast of Africa along 14W from 16N southward. Scattered moderate isolated convection is offshore along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea extending out 180 nm to the east of the wave. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 19N southward, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-13W between 35W-40W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 11N southward. This wave is noticeable in the latest model guidance and convection near the wave axis suggest the wave location. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between 42W-47W. An eastern Caribbean wave has an axis that extends from 21N65W to 13N66W to 04N66W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted at the surface, in model guidance and in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. The trough associated with this wave extends down to the surface. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the waters of the NE Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 13N-24N between 64W-70W. This wave will reach Central America this weekend. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 17N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 12N between 75W-83W, including the coast of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and the East Pacific monsoon trough, which lies just south of Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N16W to 09N34W to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N47W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate showers are seen from 08N- 15N between 28W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Florida near 29N83W to a 1015 mb low near 26N94W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 180 to 200 nm ahead of the stationary front between the Florida and Mexican coast. Upper-level divergence is helping to enhance convection. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also noted in the Yucatan Peninsula, which have moved offshore from 21N-22N between 87W-90W. A stationary front extending from 29N83W to a 1015 mb low near 26N94W to 21N97W. Scattered showers and tstms prevail north of 26N and east of 90W, and south of 24N and west 93W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the front will prevail through early Fri, when the front is forecast to dissipate. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds S of the front over the NE basin will diminish by this evening. The remnants of the front will transition to a surface trough along the coast of NE Mexico on Fri before moving inland. Otherwise, a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night accompanied with fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A small upper-level low is centered N of Colombia near 14N76W enhancing scattered showers near Jamaica and Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts strong NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean between Colombia and 15N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend, pulsing to near-gale force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage tonight through Sat morning as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean. Winds in the northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the tropical wave moves over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N74W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. A weak upper-level low is near 28N71W. Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic north of 25N between 67W-80W, including the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of Florida south of 27N. A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N39W. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N24W and extends to 29N39W to 30N46W. No significant convection is seen with the front. A stationary front to the north of the Bahamas will gradually weaken and dissipate on Friday. The pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder waters, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres