000 AXNT20 KNHC 250533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 31W-40W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis to include the Lesser Antilles. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over SW Honduras and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 12N24W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to the coast of South America near 06N58W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over W Africa from 13N-18N between 13W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N92W. A cold front extends SW from the low to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. A stationary front extends NE from the low to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and Cuba, from 22N-26N between 80W-85W. More widely scattered moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and S Mexico. This convection is mostly due to an upper level low centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected northwest of the front through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will prevail ahead of the front, briefly increasing to strong by late Thu. A surface trough will develop over NW Gulf on Thu, before moving inland Fri morning. Otherwise, each night a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche accompanied with fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin, and another is approaching. Refer to the section above for details. A small upper level low is centered N of N Colombia near 13N75W enhancing scattered showers. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Costa Rica and Panama, due to the eastern extent of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of strong trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend, pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N78W and extends SW to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N54W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the the W Atlantic near 26N72W. Isolated moderate convection is from 25N-32N between 65W-73W. The W Atlantic front will dissipate on Thu. The pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the W Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa