019 AXNT20 KNHC 250012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W S of 18N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 01N-11N between 28W-34W. West of 34W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is due to the monsoon trough than the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W S of 21N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave merge with the Lesser Antilles tropical wave. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 12N-21N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted inland over Haiti, eastern Cuba and northern Colombia. Scattered showers extend within 180 nm east and west of the wave axis S of 14N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 180 nm E of the wave axis, including Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W, then resumes west of 07N56W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 04N-08N between 34W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low near 27N91W, then continues as a cold front from that point to 24N97W into Mexico. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 23N-28N, within 70 nm N and within 180 nm S of the fronts. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche, the Yucatan Peninsula and northwest Cuba. A small upper-level low is over the Bay of Campeche, enhancing scattered showers and tstorms south of 19N between 91W-92W. A frontal system extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico connected to a 1013 mb low centered near 27N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected northwest of the front through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will be ahead of the front, briefly increasing to strong Thu afternoon and evening. A surface trough will develop over NE Mexico adjacent waters on Thu, prevailing in the region before moving inland Fri morning. Otherwise, each night a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche accompanied with fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough axis extends SW from an upper-level low near 26N71W to Haiti. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the NW Caribbean from 18N to the eastern coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of strong trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend, pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N77W and extends SW to the Florida coast near 29N81W. Numerous moderate convection is seen across the western Atlantic from the northern Bahamas to 31N and west of 67W. An upper- level low near 26N71W is helping to induce scattered showers and tstorms just to the northern Bahamas. A little farther E, a surface trough from 30N52W to 27N56W is producing isolated showers near and just W of the trough axis. High pressure ridging covers the remainder of basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high near 34N49W. A weak cold front will move into the NW waters this evening and stall tonight N of the Bahamas before dissipating on Thu. The pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder waters, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER