000 AXNT20 KNHC 241727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29/30W S of 19N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N between 25W-29W is being caused by the wave and a 1012 mb surface low near 09N26W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N-08N between 32W-37W may be more due to the monsoon trough than the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W S of 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 49W-53W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 13N. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles extends from 26N54W to 17N58W to 05N59W and is moving W around 15 kt. This wave is embedded within Saharan dust north of 10N, but the dust is not as dense as it was a couple days ago. Isolated showers have recently formed near the wave axis from 13N-19N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen along and within 180 nm east of the wave axis S of 15N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83/84W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate convection is near and within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-17N, including over eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to a 1012 mb low near 09N26W to 07N33W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N49W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N53W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is seen 08N-13N between the west coast of Africa and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low along the eastern portion of the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W to 28N89W to 26N93W, then continues as a cold front to 25N97W to 27N104W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm N and within 120 nm S of the fronts. Elsewhere within 180 nm S of the front, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted. A small upper- level low is over the Bay of Campeche, enhancing scattered showers and tstorms south of 23N between 92W-97W. The stationary front over the northern Gulf of Mexico may develop a low pressure in the northern Gulf on Thu and move NE of the area on Fri. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in that area during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected NW of the front through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will be ahead of the front, briefly increasing to strong Thu afternoon and evening. A surface trough will develop over NE Mexico adjacent waters on Thu, prevailing in the region before moving inland Fri morning. Otherwise, each night a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche accompanied with fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough axis extends SW from an upper-level low near 25N70W to Haiti to 14N78W to 15N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the SE Caribbean from 10N-13N between 63W-66W in advance of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean south of 11.5N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of strong trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend, pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N78.5W and extends SW to a 1012 mb low along the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and northwest of a line from Cape Canaveral Florida to 30N77W to 32N74W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen from 26N-30N between 76W-79W. An upper-level low near 25N70W is helping to induce scattered showers and tstorms just to the northeast of the SE and central Bahamas from 23N-27N between 69W-75.5W, and also from 27N-31N between 65W-69W. A little farther E, a surface trough from 30N51W to 26N56W is producing isolated to scattered light showers near and just W of the trough axis. High pressure ridging covers the remainder of basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 30N43W. The cold front that extends from 32N78.5W to 31N82W will move into the NW waters this evening and stall tonight N of the Bahamas before dissipating on Thu. The pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the western Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen