000 AXNT20 KNHC 241003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 24W-34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-22N, moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 46W-51W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 13N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 03N-19N, moving west at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust. No convection is present at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 05N-20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis to include over Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 08N30W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 08N47W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N50W to 07N56W. Aside from the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front, mostly N of 26N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over S Mexico. 15 kt northerly winds are N of the front. 5-10 kt variable winds are S of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. Another small upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. The front will remain draped over the northern Gulf of Mexico into late week. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will prevail to the north of the front. Low pressure may form along this boundary at the end of the week or weekend. Each night surface troughs will move west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, provide for fresh winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Windward Islands in advance of the next tropical wave. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest winds over the south central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend, pulsing to near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela during the nights. Strong winds will develop south of Hispaniola beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands late Wed night and move over the eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh to strong winds east of the wave axis. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for more information on the three tropical waves over the Atlantic. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the N Bahamas. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N58W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W. Upper level diffluence NE of the center is producing isolated moderate convection from from 25N-30N between 64W-70W. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure oriented along 28N will gradually slide south and east and weaken this week, allowing a weakening cold front to enter the northwest waters Thursday. This front will stall and dissipate by this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa